Lessons from Iowa

Pundits throughout the country are scrambling to make sense of last night's Iowa caucuses, the traditional kickoff of the presidential primary season.

I'm no expert, merely a political junkie, but for my money the biggest lesson from Iowa is a simple one -- America is one great country.

Where else could guys like Mike Huckabee (if you're immediate response is Mike who? you aren't alone) and Barack Obama defeat the well-funded establishment candidates of their respective parties? And underdog fans everywhere rejoiced. What could be more American than that?

In the grand scheme of things, Iowa may not matter all that much. Hillary Clinton could rebound in a big way for the Democrats next Tuesday in New Hampshire; Mike Huckabee may never be heard from again. (Tom Harkin once won the Iowa Caucus, and who even remembers him?)

The big loser in Iowa is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Romney outspent Huckabee something like 10-1 in the Hawkeye State and was beaten like a drum. If he loses big in New Hampshire, Mitt is toast.

Democrat John Edwards held his own against Clinton in Iowa, but he still has a long row to hoe. If he comes in third on Tuesday, Smilin' Johnny can head on back to that big house in North Carolina. But if he wins or finishes second, look out. He could do quite well in South Carolina.

Clearly, though, Obama and Clinton are the favorites. Clinton is well-organized in New Hampshire and has a ton of money. Plus, hubby Bubba is well-loved among New Hampshire Democrats. If she wins Tuesday, nobody will even remember Iowa.

But Americans love a winner, particularly someone who appears to be on a roll. If Obama wins big in New Hampshire, look out, y'all. This could get real interesting.

Who knows what to say about the Republicans. A John McCain win in New Hampshire would be big for his floundering campaign. Fred Thompson needs a solid showing next week to have any kind of chance to extend his bumbling effort.

My guess is the Republican race will come down to Mayor Rudy (who didn't even bother in Iowa) and McCain -- with either Thompson or Romney the wild card, depending on how New Hampshire falls. Don't count out a Huckabee surge, though, once the campaign moves south.

The most amazing thing about this presidential election is that we'll know who the two nominees will be in the wee hours of Feb. 5-6. Super Tuesday is insanely early this year, with a ton of states holding early primaries to get in on the action. Compare this to the old days, when candidates wouldn't sew up the nomination until the summer conventions.

It's a boring thought, really, and almost begs for an overhaul in our system. Still, hold on to your seats, folks. If you love politics, the next month or so could be mighty entertaining.

The Wasteland

Unless I miss my guess, 2008 will go down as one of the worst presidential elections in history in terms of quality of candidates. Across the board, on both sides, all one can see is a vast wasteland, what writers during the first World War would have called no man's land -- barren, pock-marked, and with barbed wire twisting at either end.

It's depressing. The times cry out for greatness. We have real problems that will require real solutions. But all this field seems to promise is "Back to the Future" or symbolism over substance.

I watched "West Wing" last night and mused over the possibility of electing a president fluent in the classics who can think and talk in complete sentences and still seem like a regular person. Somebody who isn't a policy wonk or partisan viper.

Yeah, keep dreaming.

Whatever you might think of Ronald Reagan, what I loved about him was his eloquence. The Great Communicator's hero was FDR -- he ripped "Rendezvous with Destiny" straight from the patrician from Campobello -- and his most effective tool, like Roosevelt's, was his words. I remember watching his farewell address that January of 1989 and thinking America stood at the dawn of a second Renaissance.

Instead it's been more like a second Dark Age.

And so it goes. I think I'll bury myself in my history books until this election season (my god we've started early) concludes. And whenever one of these morons takes office, I'll start reading them all over again.

Where have all the good ones gone?

Drops dripped: Conquering 'War and Peace': OK, here goes. Today begins my Everest ascent into Russian Romanticism. My copy of Richard Pevear and Larissa Volokhonsky's new translation of Tolstoy's "War and Peace" arrived in the mail this weekend. I'll begin the first chapter in a few minutes.

I'll keep you abreast of my progress. I'm determined to climb to the top this time.